4463 replies to this topic

[Mr. Roboto]

Might as well start it now. I think the GOP may very well pick up enough seats to gain control. Although the Dems apparently have more money in the war chest. Polls seem to be looking ominous.

[Timothy]

The tricky thing with politics is things can change at the drop of a hat almost.

[freedom78]

Presidential party's lose seats in midterm elections. Happens almost every time.

[TAP]

Good grief, check out these videos of Arizona's governor.
http://www.guardian....bate-jan-brewer

[Gomer Pyle]

Presidential party's lose seats in midterm elections. Happens almost every time.

Yeah, and its REALLY gonna happen this time.

[Mr. Roboto]

WASHINGTON – Tilted toward the GOP from the start of the year, the political environment has grown even more favorable for Republicans and rockier for President Barack Obama and his Democrats over the long primary season that just ended with a bang.

With November's matchups set and the general election campaign beginning in earnest Wednesday, an Associated Press-GfK poll found that more Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction than did before the nomination contests got under way in February. Also, more now disapprove of the job Obama is doing. And more now want to see Republicans in control of Congress rather than the Democrats who now run the House and Senate.

The country's pessimism benefits the out-of-power GOP, which clearly has enthusiasm on its side. Far more people voted this year in Republicans primaries than in Democratic contests, and the antiestablishment tea party coalition has energized the GOP even as it has sprung a series of primary surprises.

"We're definitely in a stronger position than we've been in really at any point this year," Sen. John Cornyn, who leads the effort to elect Senate Republicans, said in an interview.

Said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: "Turnout and enthusiasm are off the charts."

Indeed, Republicans expected turnout of 30,000 to 40,000 in Delaware on Tuesday. Some 57,582 people showed up to vote as tea party-backed Christine O'Donnell upset moderate Rep. Mike Castle for the Senate GOP nomination. By most accounts, the outcome diminished Republican chances of winning former Vice President Joe Biden's seat. But Republicans got their preferred candidate in New Hampshire as former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte fended off tea party-supported Ovide Lamontagne by a razor-thin margin.

Fueling voter anger is an unemployment rate that's hovered near 10 percent all year despite efforts by Obama and fellow Democrats to accelerate the economic recovery.

"I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure that they're out of office," said independent voter Robbin Payton of Newport News, Va., reflecting just how toxic the environment is for the party in power.

Overall, it's an extraordinarily dreary backdrop for Obama's beleaguered party. And with just seven weeks until Election Day, Democrats are running out of options to mitigate widespread expected losses of House, Senate and governor's seats from coast to coast on Nov. 2.

"The reality is if you take the 30,000-foot view, it doesn't probably look that inviting," Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who leads the committee charged with electing Senate Democrats, said in an interview. "If you take the state-by-state view ... it's far more beneficial to us" because in places like Delaware "Republicans have chosen extremists to be their nominees."

In the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi predicted that the Democrats would keep control. But, underscoring the woes facing Democrats, she stopped short of the kind of confidence she's shown in past campaigns when her party had a political tail wind.

"I am not yielding one grain of sand. I want to have the same big, strong majority that we have," said Pelosi, D-Calif.

As Illinois kicked off the primary season Feb. 2, there was little talk even among Republicans that power in the House was in reach, much less in the Senate. But the national landscape has only has worsened for Democrats.

Back then:

_The unemployment rate was 9.7 percent; it's 9.6 now.

_Half of the country said in January that the country was on the wrong track; 57 percent say that now in the new AP-GfK poll.

_About 42 percent of the country disapproved of Obama's job performance; half does now.

_Democrats had a 49 percent to 37 percent advantage over Republicans on the party that voters want to see control Congress; the GOP now enjoys a 55-39 lead among likely voters.

Republicans have steadily gained ground on economic issues and now have a slight advantage on handling the economy, the federal deficit and taxes. They improved their standing in the past month even as Obama stepped up his efforts to persuade the public to give Democratic solutions more time to work.

At the same time, 40 percent of likely voters call themselves tea party supporters, and most of them lean toward Republicans while nearly two-thirds have a deeply negative impression of Democrats. That means the GOP could be in strong shape on Nov. 2 if tea party backers turn out and vote Republican. That's what they've been doing so far this year: The grass-roots, antiestablishment movement can claim wins in at least seven GOP Senate races, a handful of Republican gubernatorial contests and dozens of House primary campaigns.

Also, Obama's job-performance standing on the economy is at a low point, and a majority of people now say they will consider their feelings about him when they vote for Congress this fall.

"I don't care for what the man is doing. I think he's leaving a lot of Americans behind," said independent Larry Schmidt, 61, of Shingletown, Calif. He says he'll back a Republican, if he even votes.

The House is most at risk of changing hands.

Upward of 75 races are competitive, most held by Democrats. Republicans need to gain 40 seats to seize control.

Most vulnerable are conservative-to-moderate Democrats in districts John McCain won in the 2008 presidential campaign, and other Democrats who rode Obama's coattails, benefiting from participation spikes among young and minority voters.

The GOP needs a 10-seat gain for Senate control, a tall order.

Republicans and Democrats alike say that quest got even more difficult Tuesday in Delaware when O'Donnell won the GOP nomination. Democrats had all but written off that Senate seat when it was assumed that Castle would be the nominee, but now they say they're favored, and many Republicans agree.

The GOP still is virtually assured to pick up a North Dakota seat. Republicans also could overtake vulnerable incumbent Sens. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Michael Bennett in Colorado, as well as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. Among other Democratic-held seats: GOP candidates are leading comfortably in Indiana and Pennsylvania, and Republicans are competitive in Illinois, Connecticut, California, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Republicans also have an advantage in states where they are defending seats they now hold that are coming open: Florida, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri and New Hampshire.

With less than two months to go, Democrats are focused on slowing a GOP wave that could give Republicans control of Congress and on trying to fire up their deeply dispirited Democratic base while stemming the flood of independents who now are leaning strongly toward the GOP.

They haven't gained traction with warnings that electing Republicans would mean a return to George W. Bush's policies. Now, Democrats are trying a different tack by elevating — and subsequently tearing down — House GOP leader John Boehner, the likely House speaker should Republicans win control. They're also pouring millions of dollars into advertising designed mostly to make GOP candidates unacceptable instead of highlighting their own accomplishments.

But there's no certainty any of those tactics will work.

For now at least, Republicans are simply selling themselves as something other than the status quo. And, if the antiestablishment results of the primary season are any measure, it may just work.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted September 9 to 13, 2010 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1, 000 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for all adults, 4.5 for registered voters and 5.7 for likely voters.





http://news.yahoo.co...ction_lookahead

[PERM BANNED]

I see the GOP grabbing control of the House as a good thing. The GOP was on the ropes after 2008 and has had to reorganize and regroup. IMHO, the Democrats forcing Healthcare down our throats via reconciliation is what did them in. The bill voted on was not what Americans wanted (either due to being too weak or strong depending on your point of view) and Obama and his congress have done nothing to cut spending or change the increasingly unpopular wars. In fact, his defense policy has been an exact copy of Bush's. Regardless of his defenders, Obama did bring almost a mesiah like vision to many of his voters in 2008. The hope and change dialogue was almost impossible to deliver on, but he's the one who put it out there. He shouldn't be suprised when the same easily swayed voters turn on him now. The GOP will have 2 years to return to their true roots while trying to combat the ignorance and stupidity of the Tea Party crowd. If the economy continues to falter while Democrats pose further spending and bailouts, they can expect to lose total control in 2012. All the GOP needs is to find their own superstar who can attract middle America (it ain't Sarah Palin). I don't know of anyone who fits that bill yet, though they still have another 18 months or so to distinguish themself.

[freedom78]

I see the GOP grabbing control of the House as a good thing. The GOP was on the ropes after 2008 and has had to reorganize and regroup. IMHO, the Democrats forcing Healthcare down our throats via reconciliation is what did them in. The bill voted on was not what Americans wanted (either due to being too weak or strong depending on your point of view) and Obama and his congress have done nothing to cut spending or change the increasingly unpopular wars. In fact, his defense policy has been an exact copy of Bush's. Regardless of his defenders, Obama did bring almost a mesiah like vision to many of his voters in 2008. The hope and change dialogue was almost impossible to deliver on, but he's the one who put it out there. He shouldn't be suprised when the same easily swayed voters turn on him now.

The GOP will have 2 years to return to their true roots while trying to combat the ignorance and stupidity of the Tea Party crowd. If the economy continues to falter while Democrats pose further spending and bailouts, they can expect to lose total control in 2012. All the GOP needs is to find their own superstar who can attract middle America (it ain't Sarah Palin). I don't know of anyone who fits that bill yet, though they still have another 18 months or so to distinguish themself.

Thinking ahead to 2012, my money is on Haley Barbour winning the GOP nod. Smarter and more experienced than Palin, more relevant than Newt, legit conservative unlike Mitt, and NOT a member of Congress. He'd certainly take back McCain losses like North Carolina and perhaps Virginia and Indiana. And jobs could easily drive Ohio back to the GOP. Plus, we don't know how the census will affect the electoral value of states. If Obama's wins in 2008 are worth less in the 2012 election, it could have a big impact.

Estimates of this impact, if my counting is correct, would be have Obama's 2008 wins worth about 6 EVs less in 2012...but this is still just an estimate. (http://www.polidata....ws.htm#20091223)

[Mr. Roboto]

600,383http://mit.zenfs.com/5/2010/09/104027877.jpg[/img]




On Saturday, voters will head to the polls in Hawaii, marking the end of what, by all accounts, was one of the most tumultuous midterm primary seasons in nearly two decades. But with just over six weeks to go before Election Day, are we really any closer to knowing exactly what voters will do on November 2nd?

Poll after poll over the last three months has suggested that Republicans are in position to benefit from what could potentially be a political tsunami — the most dramatic change election to strike Washington since the 1994 campaign, when the GOP stunned the nation by reclaiming majority control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

But there's a reason the architect of that so-called '94 Republican Revolution was on Capitol Hill this week warning the GOP not to celebrate victory just yet. "Any of you who think this is locked, just doesn't get it," former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told rank-and-file Republicans in a private meeting, according to an account leaked to CQ. "You have a machine on the other side … trying to take one candidate at a time."

Add to that an angry electorate that, in primary after primary, has opted to embrace change in defiance of all prudent calculations of political risk. Look no further than Tuesday's election results in Delaware, where Christine O'Donnell, a virtually unknown tea party candidate, took out Rep. Mike Castle, a longtime Republican incumbent who had been nearly guaranteed to flip a Democratic-held Senate seat to the GOP. One message of the O'Donnell upset was clearly that the schism between the tea party and the GOP is widening. But the larger message — which applies to Republicans and Democrats alike — is that incumbents this November simply aren't safe, no matter the party they belong to.

Obama and both political parties in Congress.

A CBS/New York Times poll released Thursday found a narrow plurality of Americans — 47 percent — disapprove of the job President Obama is doing, while 51 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy. But that's nothing compared to the antipathy that Americans reserve for members of Congress. Lawmakers in Washington now boast a near-record 70 percent disapproval rating. Broken down by party, 58 percent disapprove of congressional Democrats, while even more — 68 percent — disapprove of Republicans.

Asked whom they will vote for this fall, voters favored Republicans by just 2 points — 40 percent to 38 percent for the Dems, with 8 percent saying they're still undecided. Asked about the jobs of "most members" of Congress, 78 percent say it's time for new blood on Capitol Hill. But when asked about their own member of Congress — whom voters customarily give the benefit of the doubt — only 34 percent say their current representative deserves re-election. That's the highest number recorded in the poll in 20 years — and definitely not good for Republicans, who, in order to win control of Congress, not only need to pick up seats but also to retain the districts they currently control.

While their approval rating is nothing to be proud of, Democrats see an opening in voters' strong disapproval of the GOP — and the electorate's doubts about the Republicans' ability to turn the country around. According to the NYT/CBS poll, 72 percent of likely voters don't think the GOP has a "clear plan for solving the nation's problems."

But this is where voters send mixed messages. While most surveys indicate Americans by and large don't believe the GOP can fix the economy, a separate Associated Press/GfK poll found that a plurality — 46 percent — say they'd rather have Republicans in charge of handling the economy.

Such mixed results suggest that the 2010 elections might not come down to questions of competence in handling major issues such as the economy — rather, the November balloting may well hinge on the question of which side has better success in turning out voters to the polls. Last week, surveys across the board found that Republicans still maintain a significant advantage when it comes to so-called voter enthusiasm, which is generally a sign of who will turn out to vote.

According to the AP/GfK poll, just 26 percent of Democrats said they are "excited" about politic — down nearly 60 percent since November 2008, when Obama won the White House. If Democrats are to stave off major losses in November, the party will have to dramatically turn those numbers around — a feat that won't be easy in 46 days.

[Mr. Roboto]

Man I LOVE that picture, so funny. What makes it even better is the face the guy is making.

[Macker]

I don't get it? Is it a syntax error, a verb use error, too many plurals or misspelled?

[TAP]

http://www.politico....0910/42547.html
An election year agenda being unveiled by House Republicans Thursday will include language affirming the party's support of "traditional marriage" and its opposition to abortion rights, House GOP sources tell POLITICO.

[freedom78]

http://www.politico....0910/42547.html
An election year agenda being unveiled by House Republicans Thursday will include language affirming the party's support of "traditional marriage" and its opposition to abortion rights, House GOP sources tell POLITICO.

When it says "traditional marriage", I assume that means I can buy a woman for some goats, or perhaps only marry to further concentrate my ample political power.

[TAP]

Traditional is another word which should be banned from politics.

[TAP]

http://www.redstate....orge-mcclellan/