4463 replies to this topic

[Arminius]

He's going to lose YUGE. SAD!!!

 

Hillary is slightly in the lead against Hitler. All he needs to do is convince people he's in fact not the ultimate evil.

 

Should be doable, even for Donald Trump. They've set the bar pretty low.

[Mr. Roboto]

Hillary is slightly in the lead against Hitler. All he needs to do is convince people he's in fact not the ultimate evil.

 

Should be doable, even for Donald Trump. They've set the bar pretty low.

 

 

Dude you keep saying this, but Hillary is crushing him in the Electoral vote right now. She's also leading in nearly every single swing state.

 

VA, CO, PA, WI for instance, are gone 10-13+ for Hillary. FL and OH are also now have Hillary nearly a +5 average over Trump. 

[freedom78]

You're forgetting that unpredictability applies to every level. There's no way of knowing for sure how big these bumps actually are. With a controversial candidate like Trump they might be significant. Lots of people don't like to admit they're going for him, and you can hardly blame them with how the media are doing their best to portray him as a literal love child of Adolf Hitler and Bozo the Clown.

 

It becomes especially relevant when you consider the fact that the experts completely failed to predict his nomination as candidate just months ago.

 

Fair enough but I wouldn't say that the failure to predict the primary is indicative of a systematic problem.  First, he was running against a LOT of other candidates.  If Trump hadn't run, we still would have seen a lot of failure to predict the winner.  Second, the people who failed to predict that (1) have the much less tricky task of predicting the outcome of a virtual one-on-one election and (2) have potentially learned from their primary mistakes. 

 

I also don't know how sizable this "won't admit they're voting for him" bloc is.  First, if people don't want to admit they're voting for you, that's probably not a good sign.  And I have trouble buying that many Republicans, who as a group loathe Hillary Clinton, would have difficulty saying that they're voting against her by voting Trump. 

 

Again, he inserts a degree of unpredictability into the election, but just like any poll's sampling error, there's just as much likelihood that the unpredictability goes against him as for him.  The notion that this is some sort of Nixon-esque "silent majority" election, especially for the biggest blowhard of a candidate that we've ever seen, doesn't seem likely to me.

[PERM BANNED]

I don't understand the argument that people "don't want to admit" they are voting for him. Will the pollsters be releasing their personal information to the public afterwards? To all their Facebook friends? I don't get it. 

I'm one person, but that is me to a T.  I'm unhappy as hell with him, but I'd still prefer him over Clinton.  So I'll mock him at work and on facebook, but push come to shove, I'll vote for him over Johnson come election day.

[Mr. Roboto]

I'm one person, but that is me to a T.  I'm unhappy as hell with him, but I'd still prefer him over Clinton.  So I'll mock him at work and on facebook, but push come to shove, I'll vote for him over Johnson come election day.

 

Call me crazy, but I find it difficult to believe that you'll hold back you political opinions...  

[PERM BANNED]

Call me crazy, but I find it difficult to believe that you'll hold back you political opinions...

Why would I want to alienate anyone? Sure, conversations occur, and I answer honestly. They know I'm "Republican", but they also assume I'm more conservative than I am due to growing up in Appalachia and being former military. I also deal with non US colleagues, and they are more curious about our laws than our political debates. Some of my coworkers supported Clinton, and I don't think it's my place to interject my views onto people I work with. So I smile and respect their point of view. Does anyone behave differently?

[freedom78]

Why would I want to alienate anyone? Sure, conversations occur, and I answer honestly. They know I'm "Republican", but they also assume I'm more conservative than I am due to growing up in Appalachia and being former military. I also deal with non US colleagues, and they are more curious about our laws than our political debates. Some of my coworkers supported Clinton, and I don't think it's my place to interject my views onto people I work with. So I smile and respect their point of view. Does anyone behave differently?

 

We talk politics at work, but it's a poli sci department so that comes with the job I suppose.  Most of us are lefties, but we have one person who works heavily in Republican poliics, goes to the state convention, etc.  It's all very cordial and friendly and really not all that political (go figure).  We have the occasional petition that circulates.  When our dumb governor, now potential VP, signed his anti-gay "religious freedom" law, a lot of businesses put "This Business Serves Everyone" stickers on their windows.  As an academic advisor, I and others adapted this to indicate that my door was open to any student.  Small stuff, but none of it makes many waves.  I do find myself wondering what our resident Republican thinks of Trump. 

[Its Cousin]

Trump isn't Reagan...and polling is much better than it used to be.

And of course, Hillary is not Carter; she is out on the campaign trail. What I remeber most about that election (it was my first) was that Carter handed it Reagan when he refused to campaign. That, coupled with the failed rescue attempt, and the hostage situation, itself, doomed his chances.

[Arminius]

Too young to remember Carter, but I can't possibly see how he had a worse record than Hillary. She already did a Nixon with those emails.

[Its Cousin]

Those emails are nothing when compared to the images of dead Americans laying in the desert of our enemy... people blamed Carter for that failure, and it made him look like a bumbling fool. His decision to forgo campaigning in the last months of the election pretty much confirmed their suspicions. And there was the thing about his acknowlegment of lusting after some woman (or something like that). He just seemed foolish.

At the time, too, the Soviet threat was a real concern among Americans and he seemed weak and indecisive compared to the virile Reagan... he didn't really stand a chance.

[artcinco]

That "U.S. Held Hostage - Day 113" killed him every day.

[Its Cousin]

That "U.S. Held Hostage - Day 113" killed him every day.

Wow!I had forgot about that, but I was more of a Frank Reynolds type person.

[freedom78]

Wow!I had forgot about that, but I was more of a Frank Reynolds type person.

 

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That was my first thought too

[Its Cousin]

Haha... this one.
https://m.youtube.co...h?v=PRTFyWb9fQU