Anybody following this?
Aside from the fact that Obama obviously has some sort of fault in it all, what are your thoughts?
Posted 04 March 2014 - 07:39 AM
Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:42 AM
Anybody following this?
Aside from the fact that Obama obviously has some sort of fault in it all, what are your thoughts?
Of course we're following it...how could you not?
I got a survey in my email on 2/25 asking international relations people (e.g. me) about numerous things, but with two notable questions:
1.) Did Russia hold off doing anything because of hte spotlight of the Olympics
2.) Will Russia have troops in Ukraine within 6 months.
I answered "yes" to both and within a couple of days...
I have no recollection of this whatsoever, but I don't know that any of this makes Russia the greatest threat. If anything, Russia is a predictable adversary, at least under Putin. When they've been militarily adventurous, it has been along their borders. That's no surprise given the trouble of those areas. I suppose it depends on what you mean is meant by "threat".
Posted 04 March 2014 - 07:04 PM
As Romney saidin the video, Russia is a geopolitical foe. Russia's willingness to "invade" Ukraine is a stark callback to Cold War era Russia. I know it's been 20 years, but since I'm probably the youngest member of this board at 31, that means most of you remember that time. The Soviet Union were never the good guys or just the yin to our yang. They're bad people and Putin is nothing if not the embodiment of everything the Soviets wanted to be. Obama's line in the sand gaffe revealed him to by the blundering idiot on foreign relations he truly is. The left was having multiple orgasms when the Arab spring started. Obama was fully behind it as proof that the democracy could spring up without military intervention. Well we see how that worked out. Now Putin's set to annex part of the Ukraine and the western world does dick. The EU can't tell Russia to fuck off because Russia has them by the balls when it comes to resources like natural gas. And America is not only brusied after a decade of war, but in the process of downsizing and restructuring our military.
So basically Russia can do whatever it wants short of invading a NATO country and the rest of the world will offer some harsh words. Fast forward a decade or two, and we have the Soviet Union part 2 ready to play ball with China. And only a weakened US and whatever token military force Europe keeps will stand in their way. That's the threat Russia poses to America.
Posted 05 March 2014 - 08:54 AM
As Romney saidin the video, Russia is a geopolitical foe. Russia's willingness to "invade" Ukraine is a stark callback to Cold War era Russia. I know it's been 20 years, but since I'm probably the youngest member of this board at 31, that means most of you remember that time. The Soviet Union were never the good guys or just the yin to our yang. They're bad people and Putin is nothing if not the embodiment of everything the Soviets wanted to be. Obama's line in the sand gaffe revealed him to by the blundering idiot on foreign relations he truly is. The left was having multiple orgasms when the Arab spring started. Obama was fully behind it as proof that the democracy could spring up without military intervention. Well we see how that worked out. Now Putin's set to annex part of the Ukraine and the western world does dick. The EU can't tell Russia to fuck off because Russia has them by the balls when it comes to resources like natural gas. And America is not only brusied after a decade of war, but in the process of downsizing and restructuring our military.
So basically Russia can do whatever it wants short of invading a NATO country and the rest of the world will offer some harsh words. Fast forward a decade or two, and we have the Soviet Union part 2 ready to play ball with China. And only a weakened US and whatever token military force Europe keeps will stand in their way. That's the threat Russia poses to America.
I'm not sure how you're connecting any of this to Syria or the other Arab spring states. And I'm sure you're not actually going to argue that military imposition of democracy has been a stunning success?
Russia's willingness to invade a country that it borders, that has large ethnically Russian populations, after that country ousted its leaders should come as no surprise to anyone. The same basic "protecting Russians" excuse was used in Georgia back in 08. But that doesn't make Russia our geopolitical foe. Russia is every former Soviet Republic's geopolitical foe, perhaps Europe's as well, but there's not enough "geo" between Russia and the US for that description (unless you're in Alaska watching Putin rear his head...noted). The US doesn't have a geopolitical foe, unless perhaps it's the Mexican cartels. If anything, the notion of geopolitics is less worthwhile to great powers like the US, since they can project power worldwide. For the massive amount of countries that are limited to their little neighborhood of the world, the geographical issue is much more important.
If anything has looked true to me throughout all of this, it's how dumb politics in Ukraine has seemed. It cannot simply choose to pursue the European path or the Russian one. There is no way to simply "ignore" one of the two. That Yanukovich tried to spurn Europe in favor of Russia was a bush league move. If you make a simple decision that is so unpopular that you people rise up against you then you are, quite simply, bad at politics. I would also argue that this situation has weakened Russia, not strengthened it. Prior to the ouster, it had an overly friendly regime in place; afterward it does not. Russia may try to annex Crimea...more likely they'll try to declare it a new state as they've tried with parts of Georgia, but I strongly doubt that they will seek to capture Kiev or anything so large as that.
As far as China, they're smart enough to know who butters their bread. If your goal is to grow you export economy, you should sell to the US and Europe, not to Russia instead. The Soviets didn't "play ball" with China. Despite them both aspring to communism, they had a frosty relationship. It's easy to look at the two and note that they often side with one another in the UNSC, but that's because most sanctions and interventions have been pushed by the US. Russia takes the anti-US stance; China takes the anti-intervention stance. Should Russia start trying to use the UNSC to legitimize its actions, I think we'd see China similarly threatening the veto. China wants what's good for business and, since they're wiling to do business anywhere, that means being anti-sanction/anti-intervention in most cases.
Posted 06 March 2014 - 02:25 AM
Can we all just agree that Benghazi is what really started this whole thing?
Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:02 AM
Posted 18 March 2014 - 04:52 PM
Posted 18 March 2014 - 05:46 PM
Can't say uncle Paul isn't consistent.
Posted 19 March 2014 - 07:36 AM
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